ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL DIAGNOSIS
Coastal and Marine Protected Natural Areas of Mexico

Scope: Aggregate Analysis of 38 Federal ANPs
Date:
Country: Mexico
Data sources: CONANP/SIMEC Registry, WorldPop 2020, ESA WorldCover 2021, Hansen Global Forest Change v1.10, NASA GEDI L4A Biomass, TerraClimate, NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, CORDEX-SSR, MODIS NDVI/Fire, VIIRS Night Lights, WRI Aqueduct 3.0, RESOLVE Ecoregions, GBIF, iNaturalist, INEGI Censo 2020, CONEVAL IRS 2020, CENAPRED Atlas Nacional de Riesgos 2000–2023, Global Human Modification Index.
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1. Geographic Overview

Figure 1.1: Distribution of the 38 coastal and marine ANPs across Mexico (Source: CONANP SIMEC boundaries)
Figure 1.2: ANP Categories Distribution
Figure 1.3: Top 10 Largest ANPs by Area (km²)

2. Environmental Characterization

Figure 2.1: Aggregate Land Cover (ESA WorldCover 2021)
Figure 2.2: Annual Forest Loss Across All 38 ANPs (km²)

3. Biodiversity

Figure 3.1: Most Biodiverse ANPs (Total Species: GBIF + iNaturalist)

4. Social Context

Figure 4.1: Social Lag Distribution (CONEVAL IRS 2020)
Figure 4.2: Infrastructure Gaps — % of Homes Lacking Services

5. Threats and Disturbances

Figure 5.1: Aggregate Annual Burned Area (km²)
Figure 5.2: CENAPRED Disasters by Type (2000–2023)

6. Climate Baseline and Projections

Figure 6.1: Projected Temperature Increase by 2041–2070 (°C, SSP5-8.5)
Figure 6.2: Projected Tropical Nights Change (CORDEX RCP 8.5, 2041–2070)

7. Data Gaps and Limitations

8. Summary Dashboard

References

  1. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). (2020). Censo de Población y Vivienda 2020. Mexico.
  2. Dubayah, R., et al. (2022). GEDI L4A Footprint Level Aboveground Biomass Density, Version 2.1. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC.
  3. Hofste, R., et al. (2019). Aqueduct 3.0: Updated Decision-Relevant Global Water Risk Indicators. World Resources Institute.
  4. Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas (CONANP). (2024). Sistema de Información, Monitoreo y Evaluación para la Conservación (SIMEC).
  5. Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social (CONEVAL). (2020). Índice de Rezago Social 2020 a nivel municipal y por localidad.
  6. Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) & iNaturalist. (2024). Biodiversity Occurrence Data.
  7. Hansen, M.C., et al. (2013). High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change. Science, 342(6160), 850–853.
  8. Zanaga, D., et al. (2022). ESA WorldCover 10m 2021 v200. European Space Agency.
  9. Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED). (2024). Atlas Nacional de Riesgos: Declaratorias de Desastre 2000–2023.
  10. Abatzoglou, J.T., et al. (2018). TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate. Scientific Data, 5, 170191.
  11. Thrasher, B., et al. (2022). NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). NASA.
  12. Kennedy, C.M., et al. (2019). Managing the middle: A shift in conservation priorities based on the global human modification gradient. Global Change Biology, 25(3), 811–826.